According to industry analysis data, container shipping industry EBITDA reached $60 billion in 2024, the third highest level in history. However, the market forecasts that industry profits in 2025 will be sharply revised back to less than $10 billion, a drop of more than 80%.
Multiple factors have led to a challenging outlook for the industry: first, freight rates continue to decline, with performance in the first quarter of 2025 expected to be lower than that of the previous quarter; and second, there is an increase in the number of global trade policy variables, including tariff adjustments, fiscal policies and other uncertainties that could negatively impact global trade and investment.
The main indicators of the shipping market declined comprehensively: Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) has dropped 47% since the beginning of this year, and the prices of various routes from Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean Sea and the United States have hit new lows since 2024.
The main reasons for the market's weakness included low freight demand after the Chinese New Year, increased competition due to the reorganization of shipping alliances, and uncertainty over trade policies. In addition, the tense situation in the Red Sea region has become an important variable affecting the global maritime industry. Although no attacks on merchant ships have been reported so far in 2025, the regional situation has recently escalated again, posing new challenges to the shipping industry.
Author: Diligence
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